The luxury real estate market in Madrid moderates its growth to 3.2% in the second quarter, although prices remain at record highs. Accessibility worsens and sales drop by 7.3%.
The luxury housing market in Madrid is beginning to show signs of moderation, although prices continue to be at record levels. According to the latest quarterly report from Diza Consultores, prices in the 20 most exclusive areas of the Community of Madrid increased by 3.2% between April and June 2026, a slower pace than the 4.7% recorded in the first quarter of the year.
Economists María Luisa Medrano and Fernando Pinto, authors of the study and professors at Rey Juan Carlos University, explained that this figure does not imply a contraction of the premium market, but rather that it has become more selective. “The market is not shrinking, it is becoming more demanding,” they noted during the report presentation.
The report highlights that the Diza IAR index, which measures how many typical homes can be purchased with one million euros in luxury areas, has fallen from 1.20 to 1.15 in the last quarter. In nine of the 20 areas analysed, the indicator is already at the so-called “critical threshold”: Recoletos, Castellana-Lista, Jerónimos, Nueva España-Castilla, Plaza Castilla-4 Torres, La Moraleja, La Finca, Ciudad del Campo and Aravaca.
The most inaccessible areas are La Moraleja (0.464), Recoletos (0.617) and Castellana-Lista (0.726). On the opposite end, the most affordable within the luxury segment are Madrid (2.173) and Tres Cantos (2.216). Experts predict that the Diza IAR index will decrease by 0.15 points per year, meaning that by 2027 most premium areas could be at the critical threshold if supply does not respond.
“This figure is relevant, although it does not mean that the ‘premium’ market in Madrid is shrinking, it is simply now more selective,” said Medrano and Pinto.
The drop in sales is another key data point in the report. In the second quarter of 2026, luxury housing transactions fell by 7.3% compared to the same period the previous year. Experts attribute this to a combination of product scarcity and more cautious demand in light of peak prices.
The areas where sales have decreased the most are Recoletos (-19.8%), Alcobendas (-17.4%) and Majadahonda (-16.1%). Notably, the La Moraleja urbanisation saw transactions drop by 46.3% in just six months. According to Diza, the average size of homes sold in this area has increased from 230 to 301 square metres, a 30.3% rise that, combined with the higher price per square metre, explains the significant deterioration in accessibility.
The report also analyses the impact of international geopolitical tensions, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and conflicts between the United States and other countries. According to the economists, these tensions will not depress the Madrid luxury market, although they estimate a negative impact of 2.02% on the price per square metre in prime areas. However, they consider it not to be a significant correction.
“Madrid is Europe’s safe haven asset thanks to its security, services, and taxation,” the experts emphasised.
Regarding the buyer profile, Diza distinguishes two circuits: the metropolitan, dominated by national buyers seeking single-family homes in urbanisations like La Moraleja or La Finca, and the urban, where international buyers predominately purchase luxury flats in the city centre. International demand remains stable, according to the report, reinforcing Madrid’s position as a safe destination for high-level real estate investment.
For residents of the Community of Madrid, these data reflect that the luxury market is becoming increasingly exclusive and that access to premium housing requires ever-greater capital. The most sought-after areas, such as Recoletos or La Moraleja, are becoming unattainable even for wealthy profiles, while locations like Tres Cantos are emerging as more affordable alternatives within the segment.
The report concludes that the trend of moderation in prices could continue in the coming quarters, but without expecting significant declines. The scarcity of supply and constant demand, both national and international, will keep the market at elevated levels. The coming months will be crucial to see if moderation consolidates or if the market resumes its upward trajectory.
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